The Hurricane Season

Based on the analogous years technique and the forecasts by Dr. W. Gray of Colorado State University, the 2001 hurricane season in the Tropical Atlantic Basin is expected to be normal. Altogether, 10 cyclones have been forecast, of which six are expected to reach the level of hurricanes. This would imply that net activity will be lower than in the 1998-2000 period, during which as many as 19 cyclones were formed per season. When comparing the current forecast with the previous one (Gray, December 2000), it can be seen that the author is estimating one more hurricane than last year, due to the expected weakening of atmospheric pressures in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The following tables shows the forecast for the 2001 hurricane season.

Moreover, Dr. Gray forecasts that in comparison with the 1998-2000 seasons, this year there might be fewer intense hurricanes in lower latitudes, but a larger number of weak cyclones in higher latitudes. Over the past three years, the hurricane season has started around mid-August. This year, however, it is likely that the first cyclones will begin forming in June or July.

So far, no one has managed to forecast sufficiently in advance the time when each of these phenomena will occur, nor their precise path. However, the conditions that predominated in analogous years (those in which a series of conditions were similar) can provide some indication of what might be expected this year.

For more information, please contact:
Mario Sánchez, Press Department
National Meteorological Institute of Costa Rica
msanchez@meteoro.imn.ac.cr
www.imn.ac.cr